Changes to CA Population
Californians keep hearing that our state has a population problem: Recent statistics from the Department of Finance show that from July 2021 to July 2022, we lost about 211,000 residents. This, on top of a bigger decline between 2020 and 2021, has reinvigorated talk of an exodus as the state’s population dropped by half a million people in two years.
Should we worry? Is California headed to demographic, economic and political stagnation?
As population scientists, we do see a concerning impact on California’s rural counties — but overall, there are more opportunities in Californians’ relative youth and the state’s ability to attract immigrants than there are alarm bells.
Population changes are driven by two factors. The first, which demographers call “natural increase,” is the difference between births and deaths. From July 2021 to July 2022, there were 105,686 more Californians born than those who died. This modest population increase is unlikely to drive significant growth in the future because births in California have been trending downward.
The second population driver is net migration: the number of people coming to a place, whether from elsewhere in the country or from other nations, compared to the number who leave. Net migration is sometimes treated as a popularity contest. Governors boast about how great their state is because people are “voting with their feet.” By this metric, California and New York are no longer the cool kids; people are heading to states like Florida, Texas and Georgia for cheaper housing, jobs and to join family (not necessarily for lower taxes). From 2021 to 2022, 316,668 more people left the state than those who arrived. Following the 2020 Census, for the first time in history, California lost a seat in the House of Representatives. Texas gained two seats and Florida gained one.