NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun Forecasts 9% Increase in Home Sales
NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun Forecasts 9% Increase in Home Sales for 2025 and 13% for 2026, with Mortgage Rates Stabilizing Near 6% Yun highlights the value of homeownership and intangible value that Realtors® provide. The worst of the housing inventory shortage is coming to an end, mortgage rates are stabilizing and job additions are continuing, according to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.
Yun analyzed the current state of the U.S. residential real estate market and shared his 2025-2026 outlook today during the Residential Economic Issues and Trends Forum at 2024 NAR NXT, The REALTOR® Experience, in Boston, Massachusetts.
“Over the years, you see your past clients doing well, because they’re homeowners,” explained Yun. “There’s an intangible value that [Realtors®] provide.
“2024 has been a very difficult year on many fronts. We did not get the home sales recovery this year after an awful 2023.”
However, Yun explained that household equity in real estate is at a record high. This means there has been a huge increase in wealth for Realtors®’ past clients, to the tune of $35 trillion. Yun highlighted the glaring difference in estimated median net worth between homeowners ($415,000) and renters ($10,000) in 2024.
“Homeowners’ wealth steadily rises while renters’ wealth does not,” said Yun. “If you don’t enter the housing market, you are in the renter class where wealth is not being accumulated. If you want to participate in the housing market, the sooner you get in, the sooner you accumulate wealth.”
Yun also highlighted that the homeownership rate is much lower among younger Americans, and first-time home buyers are having trouble entering the market.
Yun pointed out that US job gains since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic (March 2020) have led to record-high payroll employment as of September 2024.